Okay…this is probably going to seem a little weird…
Thinking about business strategy is quite a bit like thinking about conspiracy theories: it’s not always about what’s visible on the surface. Leaders who think strategically go beyond the obvious—they look for hidden patterns, unseen connections, and opportunities that most overlook. While conspiracy theorists may be infamous for wild speculations, there’s a method to their thought patterns that can be surprisingly useful in business.
If we tap into the conspiracist mindset, their hyper-awareness, and their ability to connect seemingly unrelated dots, we might unlock a different level of strategic thinking.
In this admittedly somewhat off-the-wall Insight, we’ll explore how adopting some of the tools and techniques from the world of conspiracy theories can influence your approach to business strategy. If you want to see what others miss and capitalise on overlooked opportunities, read on.
Develop a paranoid mindset (in a good way)
Conspiracy theorists are often characterised as somewhat paranoid, and this is interesting for business leaders who want to think more strategically. A healthy dose of strategic paranoia can make you hyper-aware of threats, risks, and opportunities that others might ignore. Don’t take it to extremes, though…you don’t need to suspect everyone of foul play at every turn. Still, it’s helpful to develop an acute awareness of potential disruptors and competitors loitering in the shadows.
In practical terms, this means asking yourself, “What am I missing?” and, perhaps more importantly, “What could go wrong?” A good strategy doesn’t just plan for best-case scenarios; it also looks and prepares for worst-case situations that no one else sees coming.
Most people are familiar with how Kodak, a pioneer in photography, famously failed to anticipate the digital revolution. It’s not that they weren’t of digital photography’s potential…they just didn’t see it as a realistic threat. A dose of paranoia might well have saved Kodak from a massive downfall.
Connect the dots between seemingly unrelated events
Conspiracy theorists are great at spotting patterns that others don’t see. It's almost a case of the more random, the better. They connect apparently unrelated events to create their theories. Doing the same thing in business can give you a significant strategic edge.
The rise of streaming services, for example, wasn’t just about technology—shifts in consumer behaviour, improvements in internet speeds, and new content production models also played a significant role. Those who connected these dots before the trend was obvious capitalised on the market shift. That's how Netflix streamed their way to commercial success while Blockbuster was still chasing late fees.
The key is to develop the ability to see the connections that others miss. You won’t win every time, but you don’t need to.
Follow the path others ignore
If you've ever seen crime dramas at the movies or on TV, you'll have seen the police room plastered with photos, maps and red string connecting everything. In the world of conspiracy theories, they call this the “red thread technique,” where you follow a single thread of information, no matter how obscure, to see where it leads. It’s about following unconventional paths to reveal hidden truths, usually dismissed by others. In business, this translates to following data or trends that others might not deem important.
Tesla is a good example. At a time when most car manufacturers were focusing on making bigger, faster, more fuel-efficient cars, Elon Musk followed a different path: sustainability. He felt the end of fossil fuels was near, so he positioned Tesla accordingly. As a result, he created an entirely new category and set the stage for electric vehicles to potentially dominate the future of the motor car.
In your business, the “red thread” could be a specific customer group, a fringe technology, or a regulatory change that no one has yet paid attention to. By following that thread, you could uncover a strategic opportunity that your competitors miss.
Question conventional wisdom
Conspiracy theorists often start with the premise that the “official” story is wrong and shouldn’t be believed. Of course, we’ve all seen this lead to some pretty outlandish claims, but there’s often merit in questioning conventional wisdom. In business, the disruptors are often the ones who refuse to accept the status quo.
They challenge assumptions that others take for granted.
Before the rise of Airbnb, conventional wisdom in the accommodation industry was that people preferred established hotels. Airbnb questioned that, taking a bet that at least some people might prefer uniqueness. That simple act of disbelief led to the creation of a global business and the disruption of an entire industry.
In your business, there are most likely a few assumptions that everyone just accepts as “the way things are done”. Maybe you believe the reason your clients deal with you is because of price. Or that they only want to deal with you in person rather than by remote means. Whatever your assumptions, if you question them, you might uncover opportunities to do things differently and get more out of your business.
Strategic foresight: thinking ahead of the rest
You’ve probably noticed that conspiracy theorists tend to speculate about future events, sometimes creating elaborate predictions about where the world is heading. While many of these never eventuate, from a business perspective, it’s worth honing the ability to think several steps ahead. It can be a real strategic advantage.
Strategic foresight involves imagining future scenarios, both likely and unlikely, and being somewhat prepared for them should they become reality. This doesn’t mean making random predictions but rather engaging in sensible scenario planning—creating a range of possible futures and developing strategies for each one.
In your business, you should take time out to think about what the world will look like in future – 3, 5 or even ten years from now. What technological, cultural, or political changes could reshape your industry? By imagining these future scenarios now, you can start building strategies that will keep your company ahead of the competition.
See threats that aren’t there (until they are)
A hallmark of conspiracy thinking is seeing threats where others see none. When you’re in business, this can actually be a strength—especially when it comes to identifying risks and mitigating them before they materialise.
It’s history that Blockbuster didn’t see Netflix as a threat until it was too late. They were confident in their dominance of the physical rental market and dismissed the idea that people would prefer streaming. Had they been more paranoid, thinking more deeply about the long-term threat Netflix might pose, Blockbuster might still be around today (though in a very different format, of course).
In your business, look for the potential disruptors that others are ignoring. Is there a startup that could one day cause you serious grief? What’s going on in and around your business and industry that now seems relatively unimportant but could have massive implications in the future? Training yourself to see threats and risks before they become obvious allows you to position your business not just to survive but to thrive.
Be the “business strategy spy”
Conspiracy theorists are nothing if not thorough in their research, gathering relevant information from many sources to support their theories. In the context of business strategy, being a “spy” means gathering intelligence on your competitors, industry, and market to make better decisions.
This doesn’t mean, by any stretch of the imagination, that you should copy what your competitors are doing. Not many superstar businesses employ a “me too” strategy. What it does mean is using publicly available data to get ahead. This could mean monitoring your competitors’ social media accounts or checking out their job ads to see where they’re investing. It’s basically about being more informed than everyone else and using that knowledge to your advantage.
Whatever methods you choose to adopt to analyse your competitive landscape, the more you know about the moves your competitors are making, the better placed you’ll be to stay one step ahead.
Craft a “big” story for your strategy
Have you ever looked at a conspiracy theory and thought, “Wow…that’s some story”?
Conspiracy theorists do this really well. They can create a story that creates a sense of inevitability, no matter how far-fetched the idea. In business, building and communicating a “big” story can give your strategy clarity and direction.
Thinking about this from the standpoint of business purpose, your “big” story could address the “why” behind your business. Why do you exist beyond financial reasons? Why should clients care? Where is your business headed in the long term? What you need to aim for is a story that connects emotionally with your clients. Research consistently points to the fact that most of us aren’t the rational humans we like to think we are…we tend to decision-making based more on emotion, so it’s an important connection to make.
If you can do this, you’ll create a strategy that’s not just practical but also really compelling. Clients and employees alike will want to be part of the story you’re telling.
Embrace the unknown
While conspiracy theorists seem to thrive on uncertainty, that’s not so in business…the unknown can be terrifying. But it can also be a source of opportunity. The businesses that thrive are the ones that can adapt quickly, take (measured) risks, and embrace ambiguity.
Many businesses have a “test and learn” mindset. Instead of waiting for what looks like a perfect opportunity, try launching small, controlled experiments to test new ideas. This allows you to quickly adapt to changing market conditions and client preferences.
That’s a lot
It is...
In business, thinking like a conspiracy theorist isn’t about believing in wild plots—it’s about seeing beyond the obvious, questioning conventional wisdom, and preparing for potential threats and opportunities. You should always be on the lookout for strategic insights that others miss.
Most successful businesses don’t just follow the rules; they challenge and rewrite them by looking where no one else is looking. So, when thinking about your strategy, do it differently.
Embrace the unknown and question everything.
Want to think differently about strategy?
A conversation with a GrowthCatalyst adviser could be just what you need to give your plans the best possible chance of being realised. We can help you build long-term, sustainable and profitable business growth.
Contact us to arrange a face-to-face or virtual conversation.
Alternatively, you can book a time for an initial discussion here.
In other news...
GrowthCatalyst has joined forces with several like-minded professionals to form the advisory group Konektis (check us out here). Collectively, the Konektis team provides integrated, multi-disciplinary advice to SMEs to deliver a "one strategy" outcome.
Take the Konektis Pulse Check and receive immediate, actionable ideas to grow your business.
Comments